ARCO1: An Application of Belief Networks to the Oil Market
نویسنده
چکیده
Belief networks are a new, potentially im portant, class of knowledge-based models. ARC01, currently under development at the Atlantic Richfield Company (ARCO) and the University of Southern California (USC), is the most advanced reported implementation of these models in a financial forecasting set ting. ARC01's underlying belief network models the variables believed to have an im pact on the crude oil market. A pictorial market model-developed on a MAC 11facilitates consensus among the members of the forecasting team. The system forecasts crude oil prices via Monte Carlo analyses of the network. Several different models of the oil market have been developed; the system's ability to be updated quickly highlights its flexibility.
منابع مشابه
A Surface Water Evaporation Estimation Model Using Bayesian Belief Networks with an Application to the Persian Gulf
Evaporation phenomena is a effective climate component on water resources management and has special importance in agriculture. In this paper, Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) as a non-linear modeling technique provide an evaporation estimation method under uncertainty. As a case study, we estimated the surface water evaporation of the Persian Gulf and worked with a dataset of observations ...
متن کاملA Surface Water Evaporation Estimation Model Using Bayesian Belief Networks with an Application to the Persian Gulf
Evaporation phenomena is a effective climate component on water resources management and has special importance in agriculture. In this paper, Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) as a non-linear modeling technique provide an evaporation estimation method under uncertainty. As a case study, we estimated the surface water evaporation of the Persian Gulf and worked with a dataset of observations ...
متن کاملFinancial Crisis Contagion and the OPEC Oil Market
The impact of the financial crisis on the OPEC oil market is important to us as an important member of OPEC and an oil-exporting country with an oil-dependent economy. This study examines four networks, pre-financial crisis, US financial crisis, European debt crisis and post-financial crisis, using the contagion index and complex network for the period 2007-1-2 to 26-8-2019. The results show th...
متن کاملThe Impact of Health Education on Coronavirus Disease Preventive Behaviours in Oil Industry Workers: An Application of Health Belief Model
Background: Recently, the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 is a new emerging universal challenge in the infectious epidemic diseases management. Even today with the vaccine accessibility, the most efficient intervention is behaviour-based intervention and with the emergence of new diverse, it remains significant. The goal of present study was to promote preventive behaviours during the coro...
متن کاملApplication of artificial neural networks for the prediction of carbonate lithofacies, based on well log data, Sarvak Formation, Marun oil field, SW Iran
Lithofacies identification can provide qualitative information about rocks. It can also explain rock textures which are importantcomponents for hydrocarbon reservoir description Sarvak Formation is an important reservoir which is being studied in the Marun oilfield, in the Dezful embayment (Zagros basin). This study establishes quantitative relationships between digital well logs data androutin...
متن کامل